AFL finals series: The Saturday showdowns

The AFL finals series continues Saturday with the all-Sydney qualifying final and the elimination clash between Carlton and Brisbane. Michael Pike and Darcy McCartin rate their finals form.

SYDNEY SWANS

Michael Pike

Sydney have looked like the best team in the competition since the outset, despite a stumble in the twilight of the home and away season which saw them inexplicably drop points to a St. Kilda team who weren’t a factor in the finals hunt, as well as an 112-point drubbing from Port Adelaide away from home, John Longmire’s side got their mojo back at the very end, winning their last three games to solidify their position and secure the 10th minor premiership in the clubs history.

Their obvious strength lies in their lightening midfield, with Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden ranking 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively for average score involvements per game in the competition for players who’ve played a minimum 20 games. Gulden particularly provides great movement and ball-use from the wing, gaining an average of 566.65 metres per game. 

Photo: Phil Hillyard, Sydney Swans Facebook

James Rowbottom will also continue to be an important cog in the Bloods machine, with his 7.62 tackles per game average having allowed for Warner and Heeney to run with speed through the middle on turnover, leading to an eventual 60 goals between the two at season’s end.

Their stoppage power will also be hard to deal with, ruckman Brodie Grundy averaging just under 32 hit outs a game and accumulating 16 goal assists across the year, 6 more than any other ruckman in the competition. All-Australian full-back Nick Blakey will be relied upon to mop up chaos in the Swans back half, having completed the most rebound-50s out of players at finals clubs this year with 135.

Meanwhile, their forwards will need to stand up big. Joel Amartey has been relatively quiet since his 9-goal haul against Adelaide, having only kicked 8 goals in the following 10 rounds.

Will Hayward’s solid end to the season will provide encouragement, as will veteran Luke Parker, whose new role as a half-forward saw him kick 8 goals in the last three rounds. Tom Papley’s hopeful imminent return could provide Swans with a final push towards glory in a year where everything has clicked into place at the Royal Hall of Industries.

Darcy McCartin

The Swans have been right up at the pointy end of the ladder for the entirety of the 2024 season. By far the dominant force in the first half of the year, being 13 wins from a possible 14 at round 15. Many would have thought at this stage the Swans would be a ‘shoe in’ for the premiership. However, as happens to most dominant teams, they were figured out. Sydney finished the season with 4-win 5 loss record, including a monumental 112-point defeat to Port Adelaide in round 21. Despite up and down form at the tail end of the home and away, they still sit right on top of the ladder, claiming the minor premiership and a SCG home final. Their side will be boosted by the return of gun small forward Tom Papley, who missed the last 5 games with an ankle injury. His energy combined with a star studded All-Australian midfield of Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner will be a lethal combination if they all get up and going together. They’re premiership favourites for good reason.

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY GIANTS

Michael Pike

An orange tsunami was forecast for September by many before the season began, and Adam Kingsley’s side have dealt with expectation, overcoming a mid-season stumble where they lost 4 in 5, to establish their brand of football as a real threat to the very best in the competition.

Two of their key outlets are All-Australian half-back Lachie Witfield and midfielder Tom Green, both in the top 5 for disposals per game this season, with the buildup from the back-half key as the Giants suffocate the opposition with accurate kicking and force their opponents to pressure them. Green particularly thrives in the contest, averaging the second most contested possessions per game in the competition with 14.04. His relationship with ruckman Kieran Briggs proving pivotal as well, with both contributing to 112 centre clearances between them across the year. 

The Giants approach gives their forwards, most notably 2024 Coleman Medallist Jesse Hogan, space to move inside the forward-50, and the opportunity to take marks in favourable positions to set up great set-shot looks at goal. Jesse’s average of 4 marks inside-50 per game is 20% better than the next best in the competition, Jake Waterman of West Coast Eagles, and with 65.7% of his shots going through the middle sticks, he was also the third most accurate goalkicker in the 2024 home and away season.

Their small forwards, notably Brent Daniels and captain Toby Greene will be getting busy linking the defence to attack, with Daniels garnering an average of 18.09 disposals, the 2nd most in the competition for full-time smalls. Sam Taylor’s intercept abilities will play a big role, with his average of 8.56 per game the best in the competition in an injury-hit year.

Jack Buckley and Connor Idun will be relied upon for their cleanliness with the ball, with both ranked in the top 20 of the competition for disposal efficiency between defenders.

The method is clear for the Giants, it’s just whether the rest of the teams have enough to stop them in full flow, the week one fixture against Sydney at the SCG could very well reveal the premiers elect.

Darcy McCartin

The Giants when up and going are one of the most exciting and damaging teams in the competition.

Being labelled the ‘orange tsunami’ their fast-paced game style which coach Adam Kingsley has brought out in his squad on its day is unbeatable.

The rise of Jesse Hogan in year 2024 is incredible. Despite a sometimes-challenging career, he has hit the form of his life, winning the Coleman Medal with 69 goals for the season. Around him in one of the most damaging forward lines in the competition, captain Toby Greene and the greatly improved Brent Daniels.

If Hogan and Greene are on together, there are no defenders who can stop them. The top 2 disposal getters in the league, defender Lachie Whitfield and midfielder Tom Green also have the ability to change games, with Sam Taylor, perhaps one of the best key defenders locking it down at the back. The Giants are one to watch.

CARLTON

Michael Pike

Having been second at the end of Round 19, it wasn’t expected that Carlton would be relying on the result of the last game of the home and away season to know whether they would play finals or not.

A poor run of form to end the season, seeing them win only 2 of their last 8, combined with a horror run with injury left them hanging by a thread. Carlton lost on the day to St. Kilda but Port Adelaide beating Fremantle ensured that a trip to the GABBA awaits Michael Voss’ Blues.

With major forward presences in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay to return, all is not lost for the Blues. With over 100 goals scored across the year between the two, as well as a status as the 8th and 9th best inside-50 markers in the league; if the two are operating even near their best it’ll prove to be a lot for Brisbane to deal with.

What won’t help the Blues scoring ability is the one-match ban for Matt Owies, with his 33 goals over double the amount of their next highest goal scorer after him.

Where there is hope, there is Patrick Cripps. The Carlton skipper and joint favourite for the 2024 Brownlow Medal led the league in 2024 for contested possessions and clearances, with 360 and 187 respectively. His midfield partner Sam Walsh will also need to get busy, his average of 28.4 disposals and 6.8 tackles per game putting him in the top 15 of the competition in both metrics.

Jacob Weitering will be relied upon for his reliability and strength at the back, completing 6 spoils per game to go along with 7.2 intercepts and 6.4 marks for the All-Australian, demonstrating his ability to effectively limit offence in a variety of ways.

There will be discussion around the ruck role at Carlton, with Tom de Koning in line for a return, while Marc Pittonet has performed admirably in his absence. Tom being neat around the contest will present a welcome option for Voss, with his 16.5 disposals and 5.1 clearances per game above-average for ruckmen in the league.

While they have the hardest route to the premiership, the Blues are flush with quality in most positions and could rock the boat of a Lions team that tend to kick themselves out of games. It all depends on whether the sore Blues can pull it together for what will be a tough proposition.

Darcy McCartin

Carlton can count their lucky stars, as they hung on for dear life to 8th spot as Fremantle failed to defeat Port Adelaide in the final round of the home and away. In only round 19, the Blues were sitting pretty in second place, a ‘top 4 lock’ people said. With a massive 6 injury casualties in their round 21 defeat to Hawthorn, all of a sudden, their finals chances were in jeopardy.

A win over West Coast in round 23 enough to clinch a finals spot, despite losing 3 of the last 4 games.

Brownlow Captain Patrick Cripps will have some troops returning, including key forward Harry McKay, who will be a welcome addition. However, his spearhead partner Charlie Curnow’s continued absence will be felt.

In sensational news, veteran Sam Docherty will return to the side after rupturing his ACL, spending only 183 days on the sideline. Not only a key inclusion, but a likely spirit boost that the squad will need. However, the sides chopping and changing team and lack of fitness could prove vital.

BRISBANE LIONS

Michael Pike

After a well-documented early-season slump which saw them only win 4 games before their round 12 second bye, Chris Fagan’s Lions have roared back into life in the second half of the season, with their reliable stars standing up once again, and some energetic youngsters leading them to a home elimination final.

The biggest worry for the Lions going into the series is their accuracy, with only 1 of their last 6 games ending with them kicking more goals than behinds; their round 24 game against Essendon a particular concern as they created 32 scoring shots but only kicked 11 goals at home. Joe Daniher will need to be on top form, his 50 goals throughout the year a good indicator that he can deliver when it matters.

2023 Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale has had another exceptional campaign, ending the year within the top 10 in the league for contested possessions, clearances and goal assists.

The breakthrough of Kai Lohmann, 3rd in the Rising Star, and his contribution of 27 goals has taken some of the pressure off Brisbane’s other forwards such as Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron, who ended the year on his lowest number of total goals since 2018 excluding the 2020 COVID-19 year. 

Harris Andrews has continued to be arguably the best one-on-one defender in the competition, taking 45 contested marks throughout the year, which will be a vital attribute when taking on Carlton’s tall forwards of Curnow and McKay. Half-back flank Dayne Zorko has had a career-best year at 35, collecting the 19th most disposals in the competition and taking over 8 marks on average per game, which is only bested by fellow 2024 All Australian, Luke Ryan of the Fremantle Dockers.

While it’ll be tough to make ground from outside the top 4, Brisbane’s variety of threats could take them to back-to-back grand finals.

Darcy McCartin

After the heartbreak of the 2023 grand final loss to Collingwood, the Lions will be hungrier than ever to once again lift the premiership cup. It has been a very up and down year for Brisbane, as they started the year slowly not featuring in the top 8 until round 16.

Remarkably, they found themselves up to second in round 20, yet ultimately fell out of the top four at the end of the season. They will have to make it via the hard route, which for even a quality side can prove difficult. A lot rests on their yoyo-type forwards, Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, and Eric Hipwood. If all 3 are on, they will be tough to beat, especially round one at home.

However, if two or even all of them are off, which can happen, the Lions will be in serious trouble. Dual Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale will need to play a pivotal role for any chance. With no top 4, a maximum of one home game could be costly.