AFL finals: the September showdown begins

The AFL finals series kicks off with the Adelaide Oval clash between Power and the Cats. Our footy experts Michael Pike and Darcy McCartin rate their finals form in the first of a weekend series.

PORT ADELAIDE POWER

Michael Pike

After coach Ken Hinkley was booed off the Adelaide Oval in Round 15, few would’ve predicted them to come home as hard as they have. 8 wins in 9 afterwards has taken the Power into the top two and given them a real chance at a grand final appearance.

Jason Horne-Francis has gone to another level this year, completing over five clearances per game while also offering himself as an option in the forward line, ending the year with 25 goals. Zak Butters has continued his great output from last season, in which he won the competition’s MVP award, completing the sixth most effective disposals in the league this time around.

Willem Drew has acted as a great counterbalance for the side’s midfield, shutting down opposition midfielders to great effect, including in Round 24 against Fremantle when he helped put an end to Caleb Serong’s 70+ match run of recording at least 20 disposals in a game.

However, a torn hamstring for Kane Farrell and a ban to Dan Houston that would only see him return for the grand final if the Power were to make it, has decimated their half back-line, taking a lot of thrust and ball movement out of their defence. Both Farrell and Houston rank inside the top 10 for defenders in average metres gained, while also contributing to 6.5 inside-50s between them per game. 

The intercept abilities of Aliir Aliir will be crucial to keeping teams out, with his 162 intercepts across the season only behind Harris Andrews and Jack Scrimshaw for players who will feature in the final’s series. 

Mitch Georgiades and Willie Rioli will need to carry the load up forward, being the only players in the team to rank inside the top 50 goal scorers in the competition, while also missing six games each.

Georgiades record has been particularly impressive, as he kicked seven more goals than any other player to play less than 20 games.

With a home final in Adelaide week one, the Power have placed themselves perfectly for the first grand final appearance in Ken Hinkley’s 11-year tenure, all they need to do is work to their stars’ strengths and manage their deficiencies to make it to the final week of September.

Darcy McCartin

Port is the form team of the competition, winning its last six games and storming into second position.

Despite being in the eight for the majority of the season, fans and media have come hard at coach Ken Hinkley. After their 79-point loss at home to Brisbane in round 15, the Port faithful were seen booing Hinkley post-game, and repeatedly calling for his head. Since then, however, Port have kept the faith and been rewarded with strong performances.

The same fans booing him in round 15, are now lauding him for getting their side up and running at the right time of the year

They will however have to get the job done without dual All-Australian half back Dan Houston after he copped a 5-match ban for a hit on the crows Izak Rankine, who is an integral part of their side. Their dominant midfield 3 of Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis are sure to step up.

A home final at the Adelaide oval with the roar of ‘Never tear us apart’ to motivate them, Port will take some stopping.

GEELONG CATS

Michael Pike

Chris Scott has done it again, taking the Cats to their 10th top four finish in his 15 seasons as coach.

After finishing 12th last year with a seemingly ageing list, many wrote off Geelong before the season began but their consistency across the campaign has taken them back to another qualifying final.

Jeremy Cameron, as usual, will be Geelong’s shining light up forward, with his nine-goal haul against West Coast in Round 24 a scary reminder of the 31-year old’s freakish qualities, and his 160 score involvements, 3rd in the competition among forwards, demonstrating his ability to push further up the ground to create opportunities for others.

His intrinsic connection with Gryan Miers will be crucial for the Cats scoring power, whose accumulation of 24 goal assists throughout the campaign left him in 8th for that statistic in the entire competition. 

Tyson Stengle’s contribution, ending the year with 42 goals and as the league’s top scoring small forward, will certainly help arrest anything lost by the uncertainty surrounding Tom Hawkins and whether he will feature again before his retirement at season’s end.

Captain Patrick Dangerfield’s fitness will be a deciding factor as the 35-year-old continues to demonstrate excellence, averaging 6.5 inside-50’s per game in the 14 he played across the home and away season.

The emergence of young defender Lawson Humphries has been crucial for Geelong, although uncertainty surrounds his availability after suffering a leg injury in Round 24. This could mean a return for Sam De Koning if he’s fit to return from a knee injury, however he may also be needed in the ruck to arrest the teams’ frustrations with Rhys Stanley, whose hit-out success rate only sits above West Coast’s Bailey Williams for full-time ruckmen in the competition who elect to hit the ball to advantage.

The wings will be the key to success for the Cats, Max Holmes will look to receive and drive forward, averaging the second most metres-gained across the competition behind Gulden. With 2024 Rising Star Ollie Dempsey on the other wing able to offer his support and energy in attack, accumulating 23 goal assists across the season himself, look for the outside run and gun approach from Geelong to combat the Power’s backline losses in week one.

DARCY McCARTIN

Chris Scott and team never fail to get the job done.

Since Scott’s appointment in 2010, the Cats have only missed the finals twice -- a simply incredible record and a club that is always around the mark come September.

Many thought that after slipping out of the finals race in 2023 (after a grand final win in 2022), that their era was finally over. The doubters were proven wrong, with a bounce back and a top four position.

Their point of difference, key forward Jeremy Cameron, is made for finals, and after a massive nine goal haul in round 24, he is in scintillating form.

An away trip to Adelaide week one could prove a massive challenge, but Geelong have done nothing but surpass expectations for the whole season. The one question surrounding the Cats is the potential inclusion of retiring great Tom Hawkins, who has been out for nine weeks with a foot problem. His pedigree speaks for itself, however.

Would his inclusion be the final piece of the puzzle, or unravel it all together?