AFL finals: who will make it to the big dance?

The fight for the flag continues this weekend with the two preliminary-finals to decide who faces off in next week's grand final. Michael Pike and Darcy McCartin preview the big games.

SYDNEY V PORT ADELAIDE

SCG Friday September 20 7:40PM

Michael Pike

Despite having a week off due to their win over the Giants, it has not been all smooth sailing for Sydney. Captain Callum Mills has suffered a hamstring injury in training that will rule him out of the prelim final against Port Adelaide, and potentially the final if the Swans were to make it.

This leaves the door ajar for Robbie Fox or Taylor Adams to take his place and assert themselves as premiership players for the first time in their careers. 

After an awe-inspiring performance from Isaac Heeney at the SCG last time out (30 disposals, 3 goals), John Longmire will hope for further heroic efforts from his star man against the Power as the Swans midfield prepare for intense battle with some of the competition’s best.  

The Swans square off in Sydney against Port Adelaide. (Photo: Sydney Swans, Facebook)

Jake Lloyd (32 touches, 888 metres gained) also had a fantastic qualifying final, and with Errol Gulden completing 7 inside 50s in a relatively quiet game by his standards, the Swans wings will be a hard task to deal with for Ken Hinkley. 

Brodie Grundy and Jordan Sweet in the ruck will be a fascinating battle, with Sweet arguably having a career best game against Lloyd Meek at Adelaide Oval last week, completing 52 hitouts and recording 7 score involvements. 

Jase Burgoyne’s move to half-back on Friday night was an inspired call, he completed 25 disposals as well as 7 intercept possessions with his work rate and calmness under pressure crucial to his team beating the Hawks.  

Captain Connor Rozee bounced back from a poor showing against the Cats in Finals Week 1 by recording 20 disposals and 9 tackles in a chaotic game where Jason Horne-Francis was struck by hamstring tightness and Zak Butters was forced to play through a rib injury. 

The forward line dynamic for both teams will be fascinating, with none of the Swans talls providing a consistent presence in their forward-50 last time out, pressure will be placed on Tom Papley to work his magic when the ball goes to ground.  

Willie Rioli will be crucial for the Power up the other end after his 3 goal assists and 8 score involvements last week provided a much-needed link between Port’s blistering midfield and key forward Mitch Georgiades.  

The Power are distinct underdogs going up against a fresher Swans side in their own backyard, however with all 8 of these teams last meetings going Port Adelaide’s way, the players have reason to be confident that they can upset the premiership favourites and make their first grand final under Hinkley’s stewardship. 

Darcy McCartin

Despite a somewhat sour ending to the game, Port Adelaide tasted the ultimate sweetness in their 3-point victory over Hawthorn in the semi-final.

Ports win, in front of a packed Adelaide Oval last Friday night was the perfect response after a stunning 84-point loss at the hands of Geelong the previous week. To show the grit and resilience that many believed was gone to get over the top of ‘the form side’ of the competition in the Hawks, was an outstanding effort.

The move of ‘son of a gun’ Jase Burgoyne to defence was an inspired one, as he collected 25 disposals, 9 marks, and 1 goal. Small forward Willie Rioli was the spark up forward, kicking 2 himself, whilst also laying off 3 direct goal assists. 

Even with the huge result for Port, it was slightly overshadowed by an altercation between coach Ken Hinkley and Hawks, Jack Ginnivan and James Sicily. Hinkley referenced a comment made by Ginnivan during the week, giving him ‘some stick’ telling Jack he ‘wasn’t going anywhere’ (further in the finals). The ‘fallout’ from this included a massive $20k fine for Hinkley, and the footy world divided on a non footy issue. Port will have to put this behind them, as they prepare to clinch their first Grand Final appearance since 2007.

John Longmire’s Swans have been perched on top of the ladder for the greater part of the 2024 season. After a massive comeback win over the Giants in week 1, they will be looking to continue this momentum into the war of a prelim final. Unfortunately for the Swans, their recent history against the Power has not been poor.

Their last clash in round 21 of this season, the Swans were trounced by a monstrous 112 points in a night to forget. Furthermore, the Power have claimed victory in the pairs last 8 encounters. A streak that the Swans will need to break come Friday night.

Sydney will have to get the job done without Captain Callum Mills, after a minor hamstring injury at training, however the troops run deep with this squad, with ex-pie Taylor Adams and versatile veteran Robbie Fox both quality options.

Superstar Isaac Heeney proved against the Giants what he is capable of, and even half of a performance like that will be tough to stop for the Port mids. His 200th game and a do or die final, he is sure to perform. Ports combative all-Australian midfielder Zak Butters has been down this final’s series, with an average of only 12.5 disposals from the 2 matched (one being subbed at half time). If Port are any chance to claim victory over the powerful Swans unit, Butters needs to step up.

The fire in Ports belly will be running hot, although with recent prelim struggles, they will need to overcome the might of Sydney to finally jump this hurdle. 

GEELONG V BRISBANE

MCG Saturday September 21 5:15PM

Michael Pike

Geelong had pretty much the perfect night a couple of weeks back against Port Adelaide, demonstrating their efficiency from back to front in a dominant performance away from home.  

Max Holmes announced himself as a top-tier talent, recording 28 disposals and 668 metres gained from the wing. The Cats’ forward line was deadly, with 16 goals being shared between Stengle, Cameron, Miers, Mannagh and Neale.  

Shaun Mannagh and Patrick Dangerfield were key to keeping the Victorian team’s unbelievable pressure up, completing 15 inside-50’s between them, while Mannagh also recorded the most score involvements on the ground with 13; a ridiculously good performance from the 27-year-old who was playing in the VFL for Werribee only last year.  

Zack Guthrie was massive across half-back as well, completing 27 disposals and 11 intercept possessions. 

With Tom Stewart and potentially Sam De Koning to return to the side, Chris Scott’s Cats look like they can only improve, which could spell a long and arduous night for Chris Fagan’s team on Saturday evening at the MCG. 

Brisbane looked down and out last Saturday night at Engie Stadium, having only led for 5 minutes of the game as it neared its conclusion. However, a remarkable comeback would occur as a couple of clutch Joe Daniher goals late took the Lions from 40 points down halfway through the third quarter to a 5-point win when all was said and done. 

The pride of the Brisbane team is their destructive and damaging midfield unit, which could prove to be a chink in the Cats armour. Will Ashcroft continued his excellent finals campaign with 27 disposals and 9 clearances, Jarrod Berry also had 27, 8 intercepts and the most metres gained on the ground. 

Callum Ah Chee, playing on the wing, recorded the most score involvements on the ground with 11. That’s without mentioning Dunkley, McCluggage and Neale, who combined for 66 disposals between them.  

Noah Answerth stuck to the Giants like glue in defence, laying 11 tackles, 4 more than any other Lions player. 

Brisbane haven’t beaten Geelong away from home for 20 years, but with their best players peaking at the right time, and adrenaline still pumping through them after an exhilarating win last week, don’t be surprised if the Lions roar into back-to-back grand finals. 

Darcy McCartin

After being 44 points down at the 18th minute mark of the 3rd quarter against the Giants, Brisbane looked down and out. With a never die attitude, the Lions remarkably completed the second biggest finals comeback in AFL/VFL history.

Kicking the last 6 goals of the game, they sent the Giants packing in yet another ‘choke’ of a final for Kingsley’s side. Spearhead Joe Daniher proved vital, putting through the final 2 goals of the match, and kicking 4 in total to lift his side over the line. Midfielders Will Ashcroft and Jarrod Berry with 27 disposals a piece stood out, while Dayne Zorko’s stellar final series continued with 25 touches and 2 goals from half back.

The Lions come down to the MCG to face Geelong, a stadium that in the past has caused them grief, and they’ll need to put the past behind them.

Geelong find themselves in yet another prelim. After their resounding win over Port Adelaide, their confidence will be sky high, and complacency has never been a part of the Cats DNA. Coach Chris Scott confirmed that veteran pair Tom Hawkins and Cam Guthrie would not be included in the 23, but gun Tom Stewarts return puts the cherry on top of an already well-oiled machine. 

The question remains which Lion will have the task on superstar forward Jeremy Cameron, who is fresh off a 4-goal qualifying final and another outstanding season.

The options include lockdown key Jack Payne, versatile Ryan Lester, or the intercepting captain Harris Andrews -- a matchup that could nearly decide this game with the pedigree of Cameron on display. Brisbane’s superstar leader Lachie Neale will look to respond after a quiet game versus GWS, who if let off the chain, like Cameron for Geelong, can win the game almost single handedly. Given all the unknowns for this match, it is one that should come down to the wire.